Lynnaire Johnston - Are you ready for electric cars?

Friday, July 29, 2011 9:40 AM

Why is it that after more than 100 years electric vehicles are making a come back? The simple answer is technology. To be more specific, battery and drive technology. That means electric vehicles are now capable of being driven for 160 kilometres before needing to be recharged. And, given that in New Zealand 95 percent of private trips are less than 160 km, that number is a magic one.

Nowadays there are plenty of different types of electric vehicles. BEVs are battery- only, PHEVs are plug-in and HEVs are hybrids. You can put money on there being an increasing number of options as technology improves.

But will electric cars become common on New Zealand roads? Most certainly, but the question is how common?

The Ministry of Transport is conservatively suggesting up to one third of the local vehicle fleet could have electricity as one propulsion method, by 2040. But this could be well wide of the mark, and depending on many factors around peak oil and climate change, could in fact be well exceeded.

But given the way electricity prices are going, will this be a good thing for motorists? Well, take a look at these figures...

The standard two kilowatt electric socket on the wall at home will charge an electric car at 11km/hr. It takes 14 hours for the magic 160 km to be reached at a current cost of around $6, or 3.5 cents/km. That's going to cost $5.60 for a 160 km trip.

But what if prices continue to rise? Will it still be as economical? In short, it won't. But crystal-ball gazing on future electricity prices is a lottery. No-one really know what will happen. Think about it from a carbon footprint point of view. In 2009, carbon dioxide emissions in New Zealand totalled 75 million tonnes annually. But should the best case scenario of 80 percent of the fleet being electric by 2040 become a reality, that could drop dramatically. In which case, get ready, because the pressure to swap fossil fuel guzzlers for electric economics will become intense. And none of us will be immune.